Geopolitics Shape Markets, Fed Watch
Geopolitical headlines continue to materially impact market sentiment, and the latest news flow has been constructive. Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ten-day ceasefire that appears to be holding, and the larger conflict between the US and Iran is also de-escalating. Although the statements from the US administration point to an imminent deal between the […]
War, Inflation, and Markets Collide
Market volatility this week was driven by updates on the war with Iran along with key data releases providing some insight into the war’s impact on inflation and the US consumer. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil topped $117/barrel prior to Tuesday’s temporary ceasefire announcement and is trading at around $98/barrel as of this writing. […]
Tensions in Middle East Intensify Market Volatility
This week, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further intensified volatility across global capital markets. The conflict with Iran continued to weigh on financial markets as diplomatic efforts showed little progress. Iran rejected a 15 point proposal from the United States, instead submitting conditions that included authority over the Strait of Hormuz, while President […]
Fed Holds; Inflation Pressures Persist
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in an 11 to 1 vote, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a quarter point cut. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections raised growth forecasts to 2.4% for 2026, lifted headline and core inflation projections to […]
Oil Spike, Fed Meeting Ahead
The conflict with Iran remained the primary driver of market sentiment this week. Oil prices spiked as global supplies remained disrupted with the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed. Against this geopolitical backdrop, a significant downward revision to fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP), and firm inflation and employment data added to the complex set […]
Oil Surge Fuels Market Volatility
The conflict in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran has rapidly shifted the narrative for financial markets and the path forward for the U.S. economy. From a market standpoint, the most notable impact has been in energy markets, where crude oil prices moved sharply higher on concerns over potential supply disruptions and elevated […]
Markets Face Tariffs
Trade policy uncertainty continued to shape financial markets this week as replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 took effect following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the administration’s broad use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). President Trump initially set the global import surcharge at 10%, effective February […]
Economic Data Signals Resilience
There was a plethora of economic data releases this week with most indicating the resilient economic backdrop remains in place. Arguably the only negative surprise was this morning’s advance report of 4Q GDP, which came in at 1.4% compared to the consensus estimate of 2.8%, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis citing the government shutdown […]
Inflation Eases While Consumers Slow Down
The market received some key economic datapoints this week as some reports have been delayed due to the government shutdowns. The long-awaited advance retail sales reading from December was flat on a month-over-month basis, much lower than expected following a strong November print, indicating that holiday spending was pulled forward. Control group sales, which feeds […]
Yields Fall, Growth Outlook Brightens
Volatility picked up across capital markets as US equities and commodities whipsawed while US treasury yields fell throughout the week. Meanwhile, the prospect for positive near-term growth improved according to US purchasing managers. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services indexes both indicated expansion in January, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 52.6 […]