Fed Holds Rates as Markets Weigh New Data
The market digested a myriad of news this week, with a focus on the Federal Reserve, as well as incoming economic data, Megacap earnings, and a looming partial federal government shutdown. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate on hold at a target range of 3.50%–3.75% at the January meeting, following three […]
US Growth Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitics continued to dominate headlines and weigh on investor sentiment this week as the US Administration pushed to assert greater control over Greenland. As a result, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where political leaders and captains of industry gather every year, was marked by a confrontational tone although the heated rhetoric eased after […]
Inflation Eases as Housing and Spending Strengthen
Although geopolitical events and challenges to Fed independence made headlines this week, financial markets looked beyond these developments and focused on inflation and the consumer. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in December 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.6% year-over-year. […]
01/09/2026: Markets React to Policy Moves and Economic Signals
The first full week gave market participants an opportunity to assess slew of incoming economic data. The most notable development was a policy proposal attributed to President Trump for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities to help keep long-term borrowing costs lower, though key details on […]
01/02/2026: Economy Grows, but Confidence Weakens
The market digested key economic datapoints in the last two weeks of 2025. The highly anticipated third quarter US GDP estimate came in at 4.3%, the fastest pace in two years and much stronger than Bloomberg consensus expectations calling for 3.3%. The strong print was primarily driven by consumer spending, which accelerated to 3.5% versus […]
12/19/25: Inflation Slows; Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling
Although the data lag from the government shutdown remains a factor, this week provided a slew of catch-up economic data from government sources. Labor market data whipsawed during the shutdown, and inflation trended lower.
12/12/25: The Fed Lowers Rates in December
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their final meeting of the year and reduced the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to an updated range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Although in the weeks leading up to the meeting several Federal Governors expressed skepticism about the need to continue to reduce the policy […]
12/5/25: Bond Yields Rise Amid Fed Independence Concerns
The government shutdown is still causing data availability issues, including no employment report for November which would have been published this Friday. Private payroll data from ADP on Monday provided investors some insight on the employment situation, highlighting job losses of 32,000 in November and adding to concerns over labor market weakness, although we have […]
11/21/25: Consumer Sentiment Dips Amidst Market Uncertainty
U.S. government economic data began to flow again this week after the 43-day shutdown. The September labor report reflected stronger than expected hiring with 119,000 jobs created; however, July and August jobs were revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, the highest rate since 2021, as more jobseekers entered […]
11/14/25: Government Shutdown Ends; Market Uncertainty Continues
After 43 days, Congress voted to end the longest shutdown in US government history. The end provided a short-lived rally in equity markets; while fixed income market participants, seeking economic clarity, continue to be frustrated by both the lingering effects of the shutdown and this week’s hawkish comments from Fed policy makers. The Bureau of […]