February 2021 – Bond Market Review
We believe financial market participants are mostly shrugging off current economic data, which have been somewhat soft (including last week’s employment report), in anticipation of a stronger recovery later this year. The recent passage of a $900 billion COVID-19 fiscal relief bill should help cushion the economy over the next few months, and an additional […]
January 2021 – Bond Market Review
While we remain optimistic about the longer-term outlook, recent economic data suggests that the economy has lost momentum as virus cases have risen. We believe the near-term will remain challenging as the labor market remains under pressure and many regions have renewed business restrictions due to the virus. However, the passage of a new $900 […]
December 2020 – Bond Market Review
The economy has improved significantly from the early stage of the pandemic, but GDP remains well below its pre-pandemic peak and unemployment remains elevated. In the near-term, we believe downside risks to the economy remain due to a resurgence of the virus and the ongoing stalemate in Congress over additional fiscal relief. Economic data is […]
November 2020 – Bond Market Review
While near-term headwinds from the pandemic and lack of additional fiscal relief continue to present downside risks to the recovery, we are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook for next year. We continue to believe the trajectory of economic growth hinges on the course of the pandemic, the timing and amount of additional fiscal relief, […]
October 2020 – Bond Market Review
US equities experienced a moderate selloff in September (with the S&P 500 index down 3.9% month-over-month) and investment grade corporate credit spreads widened modestly (based on the ICE BofA US Corporate Index). In our view, the recent repricing of risk assets has been rational and consistent with the evolving economic and political backdrop. The economy […]
September 2020 – Bond Market Review
The US economy continues to experience a somewhat uneven and slowing pace of recovery, consistent with more of a U-shaped (rather than V-shaped) recovery, in our view. However, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain. We believe the outlook is largely dependent on the course of the pandemic, the amount of additional fiscal relief from […]
August 2020 – Bond Market Review
The second quarter was likely the low point for economic activity and the consensus forecast calls for a fairly strong rebound in activity in the current quarter and a slowing pace in improvement thereafter. However, the outlook remains uncertain, particularly amid ongoing US COVID-19 outbreaks. We believe the outlook for economic activity is largely dependent […]
July 2020 – Bond Market Review
We believe the economy contracted sharply in the second quarter, but market participants are expecting a meaningful rebound in the current quarter. Although we anticipate that the recovery will be somewhat bumpy, we believe the weakest economic data is in the rearview mirror. Robust fiscal and monetary relief should continue to fuel improvement in economic […]
June 2020 – Bond Market Review
The National Bureau of Economic Research has officially determined that the US economy entered a recession in February 2020, following a 128-month economic expansion. First quarter GDP declined 5.0% and the decline in second quarter GDP is expected to be more severe. More than 42.6 million people have filed for unemployment since mid-March, though many […]
May 2020 – Bond Market Review
Financial market turbulence eased in April and the S&P 500 index increased 12.7% in the month, even as economic data weakened. Supported by a historic fiscal and monetary response, we believe equity market participants are generally looking through the weak economic data and expect conditions to improve in the second half of the year. First […]