10/24/25: Market Expecting Rate Cuts amid Government Shutdown
The US government shutdown has entered its 24th day and as of this writing it does not appear there are any discernable efforts taking place to address the impasse within the US congress. Despite the government shutdown, and the dearth of government related economic data, market participants did receive an update on the Consumer Price Index […]
10/17/25: Economic Data Delays Continue
An already slow week for economic data, due to the holiday closure on Monday, was inhibited even further as Friday marked the 17th day of the Federal Government shutdown. September inflation data has been delayed as the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—originally slated for release this week—has been postponed until October 24th. The Bureau of Labor Statistics […]
10/10/25: Markets Hold Steady Amid Data Delays
Markets had little economic data to digest this week as the U.S. federal government shutdown continued to delay releases. The preliminary October reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was little changed at 55.0, edging down from 55.1 in September, but exceeding consensus forecasts. Current conditions improved slightly, while future expectations slid, as […]
10/3/25: U.S. Government Officially Shuts Down
The U.S. federal government officially shut down on October 1st after Congress failed to agree on a funding bill. The debate centers on disagreements over spending priorities, including health care subsidies and Medicaid funding. About 750,000 federal employees considered “non-essential” face temporary furloughs until a deal is reached, while “essential” employees continue working without pay. […]
September 2025 – Bond Market Review
Economic data was mixed in August as market participants braced for a probable rate cut in September. Treasury yields were lower across the curve as the labor market and housing market showed signs of slowing. However, the consumer remained resilient as Retail Sales increased, while Consumer Confidence showed neither signs of exuberance nor caution. Core […]
9/26/25: Inflation Persists as Growth Surges, but Fed Stays Wary
This week’s key economic data release included the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption expenditures (PCE). The closely watched measure came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year as expected. The headline PCE deflator was also in-line with expectations up 0.3% for the month and 2.7% for the year. As the Fed […]
9/19/25: Fed Cuts Rates, Turns Attention to Labor Market
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25% at its September meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024. The move was anticipated and signaled the start of a new easing cycle but also revealed divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Chair […]
9/12/25: Fed Rate Cut Likely as Inflation Cools
This week’s inflation data reaffirmed the likelihood of a Fed easing at their upcoming meeting on September 17. The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.1% month over month in August following the previous month’s 0.7% jump. This was the first decline in PPI in four months as machinery and vehicle wholesale margins fell by -3.9%, […]
9/5/25: Economic Data Reinforces Weakening Labor Market
Short and intermediate maturity Treasury yields have been on a downward trajectory since the end of July as both market participants and officials at the Federal Reserve are growing increasingly concerned about the full employment portion of the Federal Reserve’s ‘dual mandate’ and less focused on the stable prices component. This morning’s payrolls report further […]
August 2025 – Bond Market Review
July provided economic data that only left policy makers more divided on the direction of monetary policy. The US economy showed solid growth in the second quarter as the first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at 3.0%, inflation data was relatively benign, and retail sales showed gains. Yet, the labor market showed signs of […]