December 2025 – Bond Market Review
The near-term economic outlook continues to be distorted by the data delays from the government shutdown. Recently released government data—reflecting conditions from two to three months ago—indicate inflation remains moderately above the Federal Reserve’s target, while labor market conditions have continued to soften. As the flow of economic data normalizes, the Chandler team expects further […]
12/19/25: Inflation Slows; Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling
Although the data lag from the government shutdown remains a factor, this week provided a slew of catch-up economic data from government sources. Labor market data whipsawed during the shutdown, and inflation trended lower.
12/12/25: The Fed Lowers Rates in December
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded their final meeting of the year and reduced the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to an updated range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Although in the weeks leading up to the meeting several Federal Governors expressed skepticism about the need to continue to reduce the policy […]
12/5/25: Bond Yields Rise Amid Fed Independence Concerns
The government shutdown is still causing data availability issues, including no employment report for November which would have been published this Friday. Private payroll data from ADP on Monday provided investors some insight on the employment situation, highlighting job losses of 32,000 in November and adding to concerns over labor market weakness, although we have […]
November 2025 – Bond Market Review
After 43 days, Congress voted to end the longest shutdown in U.S. government history. The resolution spurred a brief rally in equity markets, while fixed income investors remained frustrated by lingering shutdown effects and recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other agencies are working to resume operations, […]
11/21/25: Consumer Sentiment Dips Amidst Market Uncertainty
U.S. government economic data began to flow again this week after the 43-day shutdown. The September labor report reflected stronger than expected hiring with 119,000 jobs created; however, July and August jobs were revised down by 33,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%, the highest rate since 2021, as more jobseekers entered […]
11/14/25: Government Shutdown Ends; Market Uncertainty Continues
After 43 days, Congress voted to end the longest shutdown in US government history. The end provided a short-lived rally in equity markets; while fixed income market participants, seeking economic clarity, continue to be frustrated by both the lingering effects of the shutdown and this week’s hawkish comments from Fed policy makers. The Bureau of […]
11/7/25: Markets Cautious as Historic Shutdown Continues
Financial markets adopted a cautious tone this week as investors navigated limited visibility into the economy while the federal government shutdown reached its 38th day, the longest in U.S. history. Normally, the October jobs report would set the tone for growth and policy expectations, but the shutdown postponed its release and left investors without a […]
October 2025 – Bond Market Review
Gauging economic data for September has been inhibited by the Federal Government shutdown. Government agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) were shuttered, which halted the release of key economic data. At the same time, heightened trade policy uncertainty has added to market volatility. Core levels of […]
10/31/25: Fed Cuts Rates as Government Shutdown Continues
The US Government shutdown has continued into its 31st day as pressure on Congress mounts to reach an agreement. The current shutdown is poised to exceed the 35-day impasse that occurred in 2018-19, which holds the record. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and despite the lack of government employment data, they opted […]