Gauging economic data for September has been inhibited by the Federal Government shutdown. Government agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) were shuttered, which halted the release of key economic data. At the same time, heightened trade policy uncertainty has added to market volatility. Core levels of inflation remain above the Federal Reserve’s target, while tariffs continue to cloud forecasts. Signs of a softer labor market are emerging, prompting expectations that the Fed will move cautiously toward policy normalization. Given the economic outlook, we expect gradual normalization of monetary policy and a steepening yield curve.

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