10/3/25: U.S. Government Officially Shuts Down
The U.S. federal government officially shut down on October 1st after Congress failed to agree on a funding bill. The debate centers on disagreements over spending priorities, including health care subsidies and Medicaid funding. About 750,000 federal employees considered “non-essential” face temporary furloughs until a deal is reached, while “essential” employees continue working without pay. […]
9/26/25: Inflation Persists as Growth Surges, but Fed Stays Wary
This week’s key economic data release included the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the Core Personal Consumption expenditures (PCE). The closely watched measure came in at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year as expected. The headline PCE deflator was also in-line with expectations up 0.3% for the month and 2.7% for the year. As the Fed […]
9/19/25: Fed Cuts Rates, Turns Attention to Labor Market
The Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25% at its September meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024. The move was anticipated and signaled the start of a new easing cycle but also revealed divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Chair […]
9/12/25: Fed Rate Cut Likely as Inflation Cools
This week’s inflation data reaffirmed the likelihood of a Fed easing at their upcoming meeting on September 17. The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.1% month over month in August following the previous month’s 0.7% jump. This was the first decline in PPI in four months as machinery and vehicle wholesale margins fell by -3.9%, […]
9/5/25: Economic Data Reinforces Weakening Labor Market
Short and intermediate maturity Treasury yields have been on a downward trajectory since the end of July as both market participants and officials at the Federal Reserve are growing increasingly concerned about the full employment portion of the Federal Reserve’s ‘dual mandate’ and less focused on the stable prices component. This morning’s payrolls report further […]
8/29/25: Economic Data Mixed: Growth Up, Housing and Confidence Down
This week provided plenty of economic data for market participants to analyze. Inflation data, second quarter GDP growth, housing data, and consumer sentiment were all on the tape. The U.S. economy bounced back from the first quarter contraction, according to the BEA on Thursday. Inflation adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 3.3% annual […]
8/22/25: Markets Rally on Hints of FED Rate Cuts
The Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole, WY, took center stage this week. This annual ‘jamboree’ for central bankers and economists from around the world has often marked turning points in monetary policy. For example, in 2022, the event was the launchpad for the Fed to start raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. At […]
8/15/25: Inflation Pressure Rises, While Confidence Falls
Financial markets focused on inflation and consumer data, with rising CPI and PPI figures suggesting mounting inflationary pressures, impacting consumer sentiment and future spending.
8/8/25: Weak Economic Data Hints at a Slowdown
Economic data shows signs of a slowdown as factory and durable goods orders decline. President Trump’s tariffs take effect, and the Bank of England cuts its key interest rate.
8/1/25: Economic Data Prompts Caution in Markets
Economic data and tariffs prompt caution in financial markets, with potential rate cuts ahead. Key factors: jobs report, Federal Reserve decisions, and trade tensions. Stay informed.