Fed Holds; Inflation Pressures Persist
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday in an 11 to 1 vote, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a quarter point cut. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections raised growth forecasts to 2.4% for 2026, lifted headline and core inflation projections to […]
Oil Spike, Fed Meeting Ahead
The conflict with Iran remained the primary driver of market sentiment this week. Oil prices spiked as global supplies remained disrupted with the Strait of Hormuz remaining essentially closed. Against this geopolitical backdrop, a significant downward revision to fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP), and firm inflation and employment data added to the complex set […]
Oil Surge Fuels Market Volatility
The conflict in the Middle East involving the U.S. and Iran has rapidly shifted the narrative for financial markets and the path forward for the U.S. economy. From a market standpoint, the most notable impact has been in energy markets, where crude oil prices moved sharply higher on concerns over potential supply disruptions and elevated […]
Markets Face Tariffs
Trade policy uncertainty continued to shape financial markets this week as replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 took effect following the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the administration’s broad use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). President Trump initially set the global import surcharge at 10%, effective February […]
Economic Data Signals Resilience
There was a plethora of economic data releases this week with most indicating the resilient economic backdrop remains in place. Arguably the only negative surprise was this morning’s advance report of 4Q GDP, which came in at 1.4% compared to the consensus estimate of 2.8%, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis citing the government shutdown […]
Inflation Eases While Consumers Slow Down
The market received some key economic datapoints this week as some reports have been delayed due to the government shutdowns. The long-awaited advance retail sales reading from December was flat on a month-over-month basis, much lower than expected following a strong November print, indicating that holiday spending was pulled forward. Control group sales, which feeds […]
Yields Fall, Growth Outlook Brightens
Volatility picked up across capital markets as US equities and commodities whipsawed while US treasury yields fell throughout the week. Meanwhile, the prospect for positive near-term growth improved according to US purchasing managers. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and services indexes both indicated expansion in January, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 52.6 […]
Fed Holds Rates as Markets Weigh New Data
The market digested a myriad of news this week, with a focus on the Federal Reserve, as well as incoming economic data, Megacap earnings, and a looming partial federal government shutdown. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate on hold at a target range of 3.50%–3.75% at the January meeting, following three […]
US Growth Steady Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitics continued to dominate headlines and weigh on investor sentiment this week as the US Administration pushed to assert greater control over Greenland. As a result, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where political leaders and captains of industry gather every year, was marked by a confrontational tone although the heated rhetoric eased after […]
Inflation Eases as Housing and Spending Strengthen
Although geopolitical events and challenges to Fed independence made headlines this week, financial markets looked beyond these developments and focused on inflation and the consumer. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose in December 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose less than expected at 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.6% year-over-year. […]