A downward revision to first quarter GDP and Israel’s bombing of Iran were among several unexpected variables that affected financial markets in June. Furthermore, recent economic data may suggest slower growth for the second half of 2025. After a brief pullback in May, when retail sales slipped into negative territory, U.S. consumers resumed spending in June, with sales posting a month-over-month gain. Initial Jobless Claims spiked, and the ISM Services and Manufacturing indexes fell into contracting territory. Yet, Inflation trends continued to subside, with some components remaining sticky, leaving core levels stubbornly above the Fed’s target. The Chandler team continues to expect gradual normalization of monetary policy and a steepening yield curve.