September 2021 – Bond Market Review
Sep 9, 2021 | Monthly Review
While we believe the economy continues to grow at an above-trend pace, some economists have tempered their expectations for US real gross domestic product (GDP) through year-end. The current Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2021 and 2022 US GDP growth are 6.1% and 4.3%, respectively. Recent economic data has been somewhat softer than expected, due at least in part to the Delta variant and ongoing dislocations in supply chains and the labor market. We anticipate economic data may remain choppy and financial market volatility may be elevated over the near-term. However, we believe continued fiscal spending, accommodative monetary policy, and effective vaccines will continue to support the economy. While some pandemic-related fiscal relief has started to phase out, an infrastructure spending plan is on the horizon. Meanwhile, we expect the central bias of the Federal Reserve to remain dovish and highly accommodative until there is more clarity on the outlook for employment and inflation.