Economic trends have been decelerating along with tighter financial conditions and restrictive monetary policy. Recent data suggest positive but below-trend growth this year. Although the pace of job growth is moderating, labor markets remain solid, and the U.S. consumer has demonstrated resiliency. Market participants and the Federal Reserve are maintaining very divergent views regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. Given the cumulative effects of tighter monetary policy and stress in the banking sector, we believe the Federal Reserve is likely near a pause in their rate-hiking campaign. If moderate growth continues, we believe the Fed will likely maintain the Federal Funds rate in restrictive territory until inflationary pressures subside.