July 2022 – Bond Market Review
Jul 14, 2022 | Monthly Review
Financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility and tighter conditions as central banks employ more restrictive monetary policies to combat persistent inflation. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated inflationary pressures, particularly with energy and commodities, and strict COVID lockdowns in China are intensifying distressed supply chains. Inflation is weighing heavily on consumer sentiment and beginning to impact discretionary spending. Labor markets remain strong, but wage gains are not keeping up with inflation. While we expect the Fed to continue to tighten monetary policy, the FOMC has very little margin for error as it attempts to combat inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. We continue to believe the risk of an economic slowdown later this year has increased. Over the near-term, we expect financial market volatility to remain intensified and conditions to remain tighter with persistent inflation, geopolitical risk, supply chain bottlenecks, and the Fed's shift to a more hawkish monetary policy.