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Geopolitics Shape Markets, Fed Watch

Geopolitical headlines continue to materially impact market sentiment, and the latest news flow has been constructive. Israel and Lebanon agreed

March 2026 Monthly Bond Market Review

February economic data continued to reflect the measured disinflationary progression that has characterized conditions throughout the post-pandemic normalization cycle, with

Oil Spike, Fed Meeting Ahead

The conflict with Iran remained the primary driver of market sentiment this week. Oil prices spiked as global supplies remained

Markets Face Tariffs

Trade policy uncertainty continued to shape financial markets this week as replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act

4/2– Weekly Economic Highlights

U.S. nonfarm payrolls were much stronger than expected in March, up 916,000, versus the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 660,000. February payrolls were also revised higher reflecting a 468,000 gain. As the economy starts to reopen, payrolls in the leisure and hospitality sector showed the strongest gains adding another 280,000 jobs. As expected, the unemployment rate declined to 6.0% in March from 6.2% in February. The participation rate increased in March to 61.5% from 61.4% last month but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Although the employment picture continues to improve, payrolls are approximately 8.4 million below the 152.5 million level prior to the pandemic. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, declined to 10.7% in March from 11.1% in February. Another strong economic indicator released this weak was the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) monthly manufacturing survey. March ISM increased to a 64.7% reading, the highest level since December of 1983. In addition, manufacturing employment increased by 53,000 jobs last month, the biggest increase of manufacturing employment since last September.

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