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Geopolitics Shape Markets, Fed Watch

Geopolitical headlines continue to materially impact market sentiment, and the latest news flow has been constructive. Israel and Lebanon agreed

March 2026 Monthly Bond Market Review

February economic data continued to reflect the measured disinflationary progression that has characterized conditions throughout the post-pandemic normalization cycle, with

Oil Spike, Fed Meeting Ahead

The conflict with Iran remained the primary driver of market sentiment this week. Oil prices spiked as global supplies remained

Markets Face Tariffs

Trade policy uncertainty continued to shape financial markets this week as replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act

10/29– Weekly Economic Highlights

Real US gross domestic product (GDP) growth decelerated in the third quarter amid widespread supply chain disruptions and a surge in the Covid Delta variant. According to the advance estimate, third quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 2.0% in the third quarter, below expectations for 2.6% growth. This follows a much stronger pace of growth in the first half of this year, with first and second quarter annualized GDP growth up 6.3% and 6.7%, respectively. Over the past few months, expectations for GDP growth through year-end have moderated, but the consensus forecast for full year 2021 GDP growth is 5.7%, which is still much higher than forecasters were initially expecting. Heading into the year, the consensus forecast called for GDP growth of just 3.9% in 2021. While supply chain issues are likely to persist over the near- to intermediate-term, virus infection rates have declined and vaccination rates continue to improve. GDP growth is expected to reaccelerate in the current quarter. The consensus forecast calls for 4.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead, the consensus estimate calls for 2022 US GDP growth of 4.0%, which would remain well above the long-run average annual growth rate of about 1.8%.

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