The US Treasury market rallied this week in a flight to quality move that resulted from the tragic events in the Middle East along with comments from Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) members indicating that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive, therefore they might be done raising short-term interest rates for now.
Inclusive of today’s stronger than expected labor report, the market digested a significant amount of employment data this week. The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs in September, significantly higher than market expectations of 170,000, and the July and August payroll reports were revised higher as well by 119,000.
Longer term Treasury yields migrated higher on a week-over-week basis as market participants continue to ‘price in’ a higher for longer narrative on restrictive monetary policy settings from the Federal Reserve. Absent a last minute compromise, the US government is expected to shut down this weekend. Given the progress made by the US Senate on a continuing resolution to keep the government open, we believe the shutdown is likely to be relatively short, but nonetheless will have implications for the visibility on the trajectory of the economy.
