The near-term economic outlook continues to be distorted by the data delays from the government shutdown. Recently released government data—reflecting conditions from two to three months ago—indicate inflation remains moderately above the Federal Reserve’s target, while labor market conditions have continued to soften. As the flow of economic data normalizes, the Chandler team expects further yield curve steepening as the Federal Reserve moves the policy rate toward a more neutral range. U.S. trade and fiscal policy also remain sources of elevated market uncertainty.
