Recent Posts

Markets Face Tariffs

Trade policy uncertainty continued to shape financial markets this week as replacement tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act

Economic Data Signals Resilience

There was a plethora of economic data releases this week with most indicating the resilient economic backdrop remains in place.

January 2026 Bond Market Review

December economic data signaled moderating inflation alongside a continued rebalancing in labor market conditions, with price pressures still running modestly

The Disconnect Between Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Projections

Who is Correct?

The current market environment presents a unique challenge for fixed income investors. The secular bull market has been one of the most protracted in history, with low interest rates extending from the 2008 financial crisis to the present. Equity markets have rallied to historically high levels. The economy has recovered gradually since the Great Recession providing justification for rising rates. However, yields have remained at historically low levels. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, the greatest determinant of short-term interest rates, has become more transparent under Chairman Ben Bernanke and subsequently Chairwoman Janet Yellen. However, there is a current disconnect in the market between interest rate levels and FOMC projections. What is causing the dichotomy, and what are the implications for fixed income investors?

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