3/28/25: Policy Uncertainty, Consumer Retrenchment, and Slowing Job Growth
The elevated level of policy uncertainty emanating from the new administration is taking its toll on the current valuation of risk assets
3/21/25: Labor Market and Consumer Remain on Solid Footing
This week provided some insight into the course of monetary policy amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy.
3/14/25: Political Concerns Drive Market Volatility
Political concerns continue to be the dominant driving force behind markets
3/7/25: Markets Whipsawed by Trump’s Tariff Policy
Markets were whipsawed this week by President Trump’s tariff policy announcements, triggering the most significant trade war in decades.
2/28/25: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Tariffs Drive Market Volatility
Geopolitical tensions took center stage as President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, triggering a sharp decline in Chinese equities.
2/21/25: US Economic Update: FOMC Minutes, Housing Market Trends, and Jobless Claims
Although economic data was light this holiday shortened week, market participants gained further insight into the possible path forward for monetary policy through the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes as well as trends in the US housing market.
2/14/25: US Economic Update: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, and Treasury Rates
This week’s economic data provided valuable insight into the state of the consumer and inflation. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 0.5% m/m and 3.0% y/y in January. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, jumped 0.4% m/m and 3.3% y/y.
2/7/25: Positive Economic Data Supports US Economic Outlook
Against a backdrop of predominantly positive economic data this week, Treasury yields remain at the lower end of the year-to-date range, supportive of a constructive outlook for the US economy in 2025.
1/31/25: Inflation, GDP, Job Market, and Fed’s Stance on Monetary Policy
Progress on inflation came into focus with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data from December. Headline PCE was in line with consensus expectations both on a month-over-month, at 0.3%, and on a year-over-year basis at 2.6%. The Fed’s preferred gauge, Core PCE, was unchanged from the prior month at 2.8% year-over-year. Yet, Core PCE increased from 0.1% to 0.2% month-over-month, raising some concerns over the pace of slowing inflation.
1/24/25: Market Overview: US Economic Data, Emerging Policies, and Corporate Earnings
Market participants focused on inflation this week, along with trends in consumer spending. Inflation readings for December moderated, which should provide the Fed with more confidence in progress toward their inflation target as they approach the next policy meeting on January 28th and 29th.