Recent economic data continues to suggest positive but below trend growth this year. Although the pace of job growth is moderating, labor markets remain solid, and the U.S. consumer has demonstrated resiliency. Inflationary trends are subsiding, but core levels remain well above the Fed’s target. Given the cumulative effects of restrictive monetary policy and tighter financial conditions, we believe the economy will gradually soften and the Fed will remain data dependent as they tread cautiously going forward.
At the June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee paused in their rate hiking campaign after ten straight rate increases and left the target Federal Funds rate in the current range of 5.00 – 5.25%. Market participants viewed the FOMC’s decision as a ‘hawkish’ pause, expecting further tightening in the future, primarily based on the updated release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) forecast which reflected a stronger economic outlook and higher rates compared to the March forecast. We believe the resiliency of future economic data will determine if the Federal Reserve can stay on hold for a period of time or will be forced to tighten policy further to bring inflation back down towards their 2% policy objective.