July 2020 – Bond Market Review
Jul 7, 2020 | Monthly Review
We believe the economy contracted sharply in the second quarter, but market participants are expecting a meaningful rebound in the current quarter. Although we anticipate that the recovery will be somewhat bumpy, we believe the weakest economic data is in the rearview mirror. Robust fiscal and monetary relief should continue to fuel improvement in economic output in the second half of the year. Job destruction from the pandemic has been severe but many jobs have started to return as indicated by the better than expected employment reports for May and June. Nevertheless, we believe there will be a growing amount of pressure on the federal government to provide additional fiscal relief this month, particularly as some temporary unemployment benefits are set to expire at the end of July. We believe the call for more state and local government fiscal support as well as another round of direct payments to households is likely to mount in the coming weeks.