December 2021 – Bond Market Review
Dec 7, 2021 | Monthly Review
In our view, economic growth is likely to moderate but remain modestly above-trend in 2022, fueled in part by ongoing tailwinds from fiscal support, accommodative monetary policy, and continued progress on vaccinations. Our outlook assumes an improving global health backdrop, though risks to the downside remain. Covid infection rates in the US and on a global basis have recently increased, and the new omicron variant poses a significant risk to the outlook. Given the high level of uncertainty regarding omicron’s impact on the global health situation, supply chains, and the broader economy, we expect financial market volatility will be elevated over the near-term. Inflation readings continue to run hot, but market-based inflation expectations remain relatively contained and we believe inflation may be at or near a peak. We expect supply chain bottlenecks will continue to put upward pressure on prices over the near-term but should improve next year.