The economic calendar was light post the July 4th holiday with only three data releases of moderate significance. The ISM Services Index was released on Tuesday and while still solidly in expansion territory at 60.1, the release was below the market consensus forecast of 63.5 and lower than the previous monthly release of 64.0. Initial Jobless Claims ticked a touch higher, but with continuing claims continuing to trend toward pre-pandemic levels the Chandler team believes the job market outlook remains sound. The Consumer Credit report was also released late this week and showed a large increase to $35.3 billion versus the consensus estimate for an increase of $18.0 billion. Although more of a lower tier data release, the Chandler team believes the elevated Consumer Credit increase is a positive for the recovery outlook, indicating consumers are comfortable spending. In Chandler’s view the reopening theme for the US economy remains intact despite some of the recent negative global news on the Delta variant of the coronavirus. Notably the recently announced prohibition of spectators at the Tokyo Olympics highlights the inconsistent vaccination progress in many developed market economies which will serve to stretch out the timeline on the ultimate recovery of the global economy.
