The near-term economic outlook continues to be distorted by the data delays from the government shutdown. Recently released government data—reflecting conditions from two to three months ago—indicate inflation remains moderately above the Federal Reserve’s target, while labor market conditions have continued to soften. As the flow of economic data normalizes, the Chandler team expects further yield curve steepening as the Federal Reserve moves the policy rate toward a more neutral range. U.S. trade and fiscal policy also remain sources of elevated market uncertainty.
01/02/2026: Economy Grows, but Confidence Weakens
January 2, 2026
The market digested key economic datapoints in the last two weeks of 2025. The highly anticipated third quarter US GDP