Against a backdrop of predominantly positive economic data this week, Treasury yields remain at the lower end of the year-to-date range, supportive of a constructive outlook for the US economy in 2025.
Progress on inflation came into focus with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data from December. Headline PCE was in line with consensus expectations both on a month-over-month, at 0.3%, and on a year-over-year basis at 2.6%. The Fed’s preferred gauge, Core PCE, was unchanged from the prior month at 2.8% year-over-year. Yet, Core PCE increased from 0.1% to 0.2% month-over-month, raising some concerns over the pace of slowing inflation.
Market participants focused on inflation this week, along with trends in consumer spending. Inflation readings for December moderated, which should provide the Fed with more confidence in progress toward their inflation target as they approach the next policy meeting on January 28th and 29th.
