Oil, Inflation and the Fed Rate Outlook
October 23, 2026 There was little in the way of economic data for market participants to digest this week, instead worries about funding artificial intelligence capex spending after Meta results drove a technology sell-off and a move into government bonds. Bond yields fell despite oil climbing to its highest levels since May as attacks tied […]
Higher Energy Costs Drive Inflation
October 16, 2026 Consumer and producer price gains outpaced forecasts in September, as higher fuel costs tied to the conflict with Iran spread from the pump through the wider economy. New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams said Tuesday that one more rate increase this year may still be appropriate, though he expects inflation […]
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise
October 9, 2026 The case for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase this year grew stronger this week. The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, released on Wednesday showed most officials judged another quarter-point increase would likely be appropriate by year-end. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a permanent voting member, said Thursday that he anticipates more […]
Rates Rise as Jobs Weaken
October 2, 2026 Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the 90,000 economists expected, and revisions removed a combined -60,000 from the July and August totals. Healthcare, construction, and manufacturing reflected gains while jobs in the insurance industry fell sharply. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, back to its June level, though part […]
Strong Data Sparks Yield Surge
September 25, 2026 Financial markets repriced the outlook for interest rates this week as incoming data pointed to continued economic momentum and persistent inflation pressures. Treasury yields rose sharply across the curve this week, from 3-month bills to the 30-year bond, with the 5-year trading above 5% and the 10-year posting its largest weekly gain […]
Fed Raises Rates
September 18, 2026 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point on Wednesday, to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase in three years, on a unanimous vote. The statement called inflation elevated and said the move supports a timelier return to the Committee’s 2% inflation target. The […]
Fed Faces Tough Rate Decision
September 11, 2026 Inflation data took center stage this week ahead of next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and interest rate decision. Bond yields rose sharply, driven by higher oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, and investor disappointment following the U.S. Treasury’s recently announced increase in purchases of longer-dated government securities. […]
Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook
September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone for markets attempting to determine if this week’s data provided greater clarity for the direction of monetary policy. The August employment report showed nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly three times the 55,000 consensus, with […]
Fed Signals Patience
August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at the center of monetary policy without committing to specific action at the September meeting. He established a high bar for further easing, emphasizing that the Committee needs clear and sustained evidence that underlying inflation is moving toward […]
Strong Economy Keeps Rates Elevated
August 21, 2026 It was a relatively light week for economic data but intra-day market volatility for fixed income investors remains elevated. The hyperscaler and artificial intelligence (AI) build out continues to garner much attention, and the overall economy is benefitting from the large spending projects being implemented. Notably, regional manufacturing activity was strong in […]