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Markets Climb as Fed Shifts

Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair on April 21 placed the central bank’s upcoming leadership

April 2026 Monthly Bond Market Review

Recent economic data point to moderating growth alongside rising inflation pressures, as the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began

Geopolitics Shape Markets, Fed Watch

Geopolitical headlines continue to materially impact market sentiment, and the latest news flow has been constructive. Israel and Lebanon agreed

March 2026 Monthly Bond Market Review

February economic data continued to reflect the measured disinflationary progression that has characterized conditions throughout the post-pandemic normalization cycle, with

4/23– Weekly Economic Highlights

Optimism regarding the economic outlook is quite strong, with the consensus forecast calling for 6.3% GDP growth this year, and the majority of economic data continue to surprise to the upside. Overall, we believe the data remains indicative of accelerating economic growth. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) jumped 1.3% month-over-month in March (much higher than the 0.6% consensus forecast), following a 0.1% decline in February. On a year-over-year basis, the LEI was up 7.9% in March versus down 1.5% in February. This is the first time the index has been positive on a year-over-year basis since the pandemic started, as comparisons have eased. According to the Conference Board, the index suggests that economic momentum is increasing in the near-term, with widespread gains across all ten index components. Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +1.71 in March (well ahead of the 0.58 consensus forecast) from -1.20 in February. On a 3-month moving average basis, the CFNAI jumped to +0.54 in March from +0.07 in February, pointing to above-trend economic growth

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