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Rates Rise as Jobs Weaken

October 2, 2026 Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the 90,000 economists expected, and revisions removed a

Strong Data Sparks Yield Surge

September 25, 2026 Financial markets repriced the outlook for interest rates this week as incoming data pointed to continued economic

Fed Raises Rates

September 18, 2026 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point on

Fed Faces Tough Rate Decision

September 11, 2026 Inflation data took center stage this week ahead of next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and

Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

12/3- Weekly Economic Highlights

Job growth was weaker than expected in November, but the unemployment rate still declined four tenths of a percent to 4.2%. We believe a variety of factors are keeping some workers out of the labor force, which has likely held back job growth despite strong demand from employers. These dynamics may remain in place over the near-term, though we tend to believe labor supply will improve as the health situation improves. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 210,000 in November, versus the consensus forecast of 550,000. On a trailing 3-month and 6-month basis, payrolls increased an average of 378,000 and 612,000 per month, as job growth has decelerated from the summer months. The labor participation rate improved to 61.8% in November from 61.6% in October but remains lower than the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. The employment-population ratio increased to 59.2% from 58.8%, but also remains below the pre-pandemic level of 61.1%. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, declined to 7.8% in November from 8.3% in October (versus 7.0% in February 2020). Annualized average hourly earnings were up by 4.8% in November (unchanged from October), reflecting strong wage growth driven in part by the ongoing imbalance in the supply and demand for labor. Although nearly 6.9 million people remain unemployed in the U.S., the labor market has made significant progress over the past year. We believe uncertainty related to the new Covid-19 omicron variant may prolong some workers’ return to the labor force, and supply and demand for workers in high-touch service sectors in particular may remain unbalanced over the near- to intermediate-term, keeping upward pressure on wages.

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Chandler will be closed on Monday, October 12 in observance of Columbus Day