The pace of economic growth appears to be moderating from a very high level, but the outlook for economic growth remains strong. Some economists have recently tempered their forecasts for economic growth through year-end and 2022. The current Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2021 and 2022 US GDP growth are 5.7% and 4.0%, respectively, which remain consistent with strong economic growth, and are well above the long-run trend growth rate of about 1.8%. We believe ongoing supply chain disruptions and lingering impact of the health crisis are largely the reasons that GDP estimates have moderated, as these issues are now widely expected to persist into 2022. The Conference Board expects economic growth to remain strong but lowered their GDP forecasts this week and now expect 5.7% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.8% GDP growth in 2022 (down from 6.0% and 4.0%, respectively, last month). The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.2% month-over-month in September (below expectations), following a 0.8% increase in August. According to the Conference Board, the LEI’s slower rate of growth in recent months suggests the economy is on a more moderate growth trajectory compared to the first half of the year.