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Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

Treasury Yields Rise on Data

July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs

1/8– Weekly Economic Highlights

U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined by 140,000 in December. It was the first monthly decline in nonfarm payrolls since April of last year and came in well below expectations for a 50,000 gain. The monthly decline was led by the leisure and hospitality sector which experienced a 498,000 net decline in payrolls in December, along with modest declines in government jobs and education and health services. The unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 6.7% and has improved significantly from the peak of 14.8% last April. Nevertheless, more than 10.7 million people remain unemployed. Workers who classified themselves as employed but absent from work in December continued to understate the unemployment rate by about 0.6%. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, remained high but declined to 11.7% in December from 12.0% in November. The labor participation rate was unchanged at 61.5% in December and remains well below pre-pandemic levels. We anticipate the labor market is likely to remain challenged over the near-term due to the virus, particularly in the leisure and hospitality sector.

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