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Rates Rise as Jobs Weaken

October 2, 2026 Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the 90,000 economists expected, and revisions removed a

Strong Data Sparks Yield Surge

September 25, 2026 Financial markets repriced the outlook for interest rates this week as incoming data pointed to continued economic

Fed Raises Rates

September 18, 2026 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point on

Fed Faces Tough Rate Decision

September 11, 2026 Inflation data took center stage this week ahead of next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and

Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

1/7- Weekly Economic Highlights

Job growth slowed in December, with US nonfarm payroll growth of just 199,000 in the month versus the consensus forecast of 450,000, but the unemployment rate still declined to 3.9%, the lowest level since February 2020. Nonfarm payrolls for the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 141,000. On a trailing 3-month and 6-month basis, payrolls increased an average of 365,000 and 508,000 per month, respectively, which still compares favorably to the average job gains in the five years leading up to the pandemic of about 196,000 per month. We believe a variety of factors are keeping some workers out of the labor force for now, which continues to hold back job growth despite strong demand from employers. We believe the resurgence of the virus in December has likely prolonged some workers from returning to the labor force. The labor participation rate was unchanged in December at 61.9% and remains lower than the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. The employment-population ratio increased to 59.5% in December from 59.3% in November, but also remains below the pre-pandemic level of 61.2%. In our view, labor participation will likely improve gradually as the health situation improves. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, declined to 7.3% in December from 7.7% in November (versus 7.0% in February 2020). Annualized average hourly earnings rose 0.6% month-over-month and were up 4.7% year-over-year in December versus 5.1% in November. Although wage growth eased slightly on a year-over-year basis in December, we believe the month-over-month gain is indicative of an ongoing imbalance in the supply and demand for labor which may keep upward pressure on wages over the near- to intermediate-term.

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Chandler will be closed on Monday, October 12 in observance of Columbus Day