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January 2026 Bond Market Review

December economic data signaled moderating inflation alongside a continued rebalancing in labor market conditions, with price pressures still running modestly

December 2025 – Bond Market Review

The near-term economic outlook continues to be distorted by the data delays from the government shutdown. Recently released government data—reflecting

1/15– Weekly Economic Highlights

Retail sales momentum slowed during the holiday shopping season. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales were up 2.9% in December versus 3.7% in November. On a month-over-month basis, retail sales declined 0.7% in December, following a 1.4% decline in November. The month-over-month declines were broad-based in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, with outsized declines for non-store (e-commerce) sales, electronic & appliance stores, food service & drinking places, and department stores. Sales at clothing and accessories stores were positive in December, but this followed a sharp decline in November. Sales of motor vehicles and parts and gasoline also showed relative strength in December. According to the Energy Information Administration, average US regular retail gas prices increased nearly 6% in the month. Excluding vehicles and gas, retail sales fell 2.1% in December, following a 1.3% decline in November.

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