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Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

Treasury Yields Rise on Data

July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs

1/14- Weekly Economic Highlights

Inflation continues to run well above the Fed’s longer-run target of around 2.0%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 7.0% year-over-year in December, versus up 6.8% year-over-year in November. Core CPI (CPI less food and energy) was up 5.5% year-over-year in December, versus up 4.9% in November. Pricing pressures were widespread in December, with notable gains for used cars and trucks, new vehicles, food, and rent. While we believe year-over-year inflation may be at or near a peak, we expect pricing pressure will remain elevated over the near-term. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles remain congested, and we believe the China’s ‘zero-Covid’ strategy and the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year holiday may also exacerbate global supply chain disruptions near-term. Meanwhile, we believe the current surge in US Omicron cases is likely putting additional strain on labor supply, fueling continued upward pressure on wages. However, we expect inflationary pressure will start to abate later this year, amid an improvement in the global health situation, easing supply chain bottlenecks, and a potential shift in consumer spending toward more services spending rather than goods. In addition, over the coming months, year-over-year inflation readings will also start to comp against rising inflationary pressures last year. Fiscal drag and normalizing monetary policy should also help to ease pricing pressures as we move through this year, in our view.

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