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Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

July 31, 2026

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

Treasury Yields Rise on Data

July 24, 2026

July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs

Negative Yields – And Why They are (Still) Unlikely to Happen in the U.S.

Please see Chandler’s updated whitepaper where we revisit “Negative Yields – and Why they are (Still) Unlikely to Happen in the US in 2020.” This thought piece is an update to the 2019 whitepaper by Scott Prickett, CTP, Deputy CIO, Julie Hughes, Senior Portfolio Strategist, and Carlos Oblites, Senior Portfolio Strategist, and examines the unprecedented growth of negative yielding debt globally, and what the outlook is for this phenomenon in the United States.

Imagine a world where lenders pay you to borrow money, debt service on a mortgage is structured so you pay back less than the amount borrowed, and bank deposits cost you money rather than earn you money. Even before the pandemic, this was the new normal for a number of developed economies currently implementing Negative Interest Rate Policies (“NIRP”) in order to spur growth and reduce recessionary pressures. In many cases, the detrimental economic fallout from the pandemic has increased the likelihood that NIRP will be a tool used by global central banks for years to come. The paradigm shift ushered in by NIRP across the globe has grown considerably. The unprecedented growth of negative yielding debt, as well as the economic challenges presented by COVID-19, has left many investors wondering if negative yields are coming to the United States as a Federal Reserve (“Fed”) policy decision, with the U.S. being one of the last developed economies continuing to eschew negative rates altogether. In fact, from a secondary market standpoint they already did, as rates on U.S. Treasury bills turned negative on March 25th; but so far, the event was short-lived and turned out to be measured in days.  Although we believe negative U.S. yields are not probable, it is certainly not an impossible scenario that the Fed could use the tool should the pandemic take a turn for the worse causing additional lockdowns with corresponding economic damage. (Nevertheless, the keyword in the title of this article remains “Unlikely”).

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To read the original whitepaper from September 2019, please click here.