March 2021 – Bond Market Review
Mar 10, 2021 | Monthly Review
Estimates for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year have been revised higher. The current Bloomberg consensus estimate for 2021 US GDP growth is 5.5% (following a 3.5% decline last year). Although the labor market is still a long way from a full recovery, robust fiscal support should help support the economy in the near-term. During 2020, Congress approved about $3.6 trillion in COVID-19 fiscal relief and the passage of an additional $1.9 trillion relief package is imminent. The White House is also crafting a proposal for an approximate $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. Meanwhile, Fed policymakers remain dovish and monetary policy remains highly accommodative. Moreover, the vaccine rollout is accelerating at a faster than expected pace. Altogether, we believe these factors could set the economy up for a fairly strong second half of the year.