February 2023 – Bond Market Review
Feb 15, 2023 | Monthly Review
Market volatility has intensified as investors weigh the probabilities of a hard or soft economic landing. The strong labor market has helped sustain economic growth. Inflation metrics are trending downward but remain significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s target. Financial conditions have eased, and credit spreads have narrowed over the last quarter. Geopolitical risks remain as the Russia/Ukraine war persists and China reopens, while domestically the debt ceiling risk has emerged. As uncertainty has grown, the consensus market view has diverged from the Federal Reserve’s projected rate path. While evidence of slower economic conditions has begun to mount, we believe the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten monetary policy at a slower pace and remain restrictive for some time, and uncertainty will continue to fuel market volatility.