8/13 – Weekly Economic Highlights

While the US economic reopening theme continues, the path toward a full reopening of the economy and return to normalcy has been more uneven than many economists and CEOs were forecasting just a few months ago. The resurgence of the virus in the US is causing a modest disruption in economic activity and having a negative impact on consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan sentiment index plunging more than 10 points this month to 70.2 (the lowest level since 2011). Multiple airlines have recently reported an increase in cancellations and a drop in demand as virus cases continue to rise. Supply chain and labor market disruptions are also likely to continue while global infection rates remain uncontained, putting ongoing upward pressure on transportation, input, and labor costs. Many automakers previously expected a meaningful improvement in their supply chains in the second half of this year, but the ongoing global semiconductor shortage is now expected to spill into next year. Overall, we believe the US economy continues to grow at a strong, above-trend, pace but we believe economic data will remain somewhat choppy over the near-term.

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