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Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

Treasury Yields Rise on Data

July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs

1/29– Weekly Economic Highlights

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept monetary policy unchanged at their meeting this week as expected, with the fed funds target rate in a range of 0.0% to 0.25%. The Fed also continues to purchase $80 billion of Treasuries per month, and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities per month. The decision among voting members (which includes the four new Reserve Bank Presidents that rotated onto the FOMC this year as well as new Fed Governor Christopher Waller) was unanimous. The Fed intends to remain highly accommodative until their goals of maximum employment and higher inflation are achieved. Fed Chair Powell said it would be premature to begin talking about tapering their asset purchases and said they will telegraph their plans well in advance of any changes in monetary policy. Notably, Chair Powell also said that the Fed believes inflation will pick up in the coming months, but the increase is likely to be transient. As such, we expect the Fed to look through any near-term increase in inflation, even if it begins to exceed 2.0% this spring, and is likely to keep policy on hold for at least the next 6-12 months. For now, inflation continues to run well below the Fed’s 2.0% long-run target, with the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index up just 1.3% year-over-year in December, and Core PCE up just 1.5% year-over-year in the month.

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